
Immediately following the conference championship games, the big questions -- Who is going to win? What are both teams going to do to win the game? -- start getting asked. I think some of the trends that led to success in previous Super Bowls may not be as strong over the last couple of years as they were 10 years ago. That said, I'll try to give you some thoughts on what it will take to win Super Bowl XLI.
The teams that allowed fewer points in the regular season are 28-11 in the Super Bowl (in 2004, the Patriots and Eagles allowed the same number of points)… In the last four games of the regular season, the Colts allowed 109 points and the Bears allowed 105. In the playoffs, the Colts have allowed an average of 16 points per game, and the Bears have allowed 19 points per game.
Bears on offenseWhen Chicago has the ball, it needs to control the clock. The ideal situation would be to have 32-plus minutes of possession. The Bears have to throw the football to set up the run -- the passing game needs to have success early, much like New England tried to do two weeks ago.
Probably the most important thing that quarterback Rex Grossman has to do -- aside from avoiding turnovers, of course -- is to convert the third-and-short situations.
Bears on defenseThe Bears need to tackle well. If they don't, then tight end off Dallas Clark, running back Joseph Addai and receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne will break off some big plays Despite the Bears' penchant to play the Cover 2 defense, I think you'll see them playing more man-to-man coverage here with cornerbacks Nathen Vasher and Charles Tillman. According to Saints quarterback Drew Brees, the Bears were in man coverage 80-85 percent of the time in the NFC Championship Game, and we could see that again here. If that's the case, then it's also imperative for the Bears to stop the run when they're in nickel defense.
Can Peyton direct the Colts to a Superbowl victory?
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| Tight end Dallas Clark is expected to be a key factor in the Colts' explosive offense. |
In the first two playoff games against Kansas City and Baltimore, Indianapolis protected very well -- especially against the Ravens' terrific pass rush. I would throw out the second half of the AFC title game, however, because the New England defense was clearly tired -- not only from the game, but from the heat of the building and coming off a tough game in San Diego the previous week.
Colts tight end Dallas Clark is a big factor here. He had his best game ever against New England and I think he'll continue to be a huge factor.
Colts on defenseIt's pretty simple here: The Colts need to be able to stop the run and make plays on short yardage. They can't overrun plays -- otherwise they'll allow big plays by receivers Bernard Berrian and Rashied Davis, who have a habit of making big plays.
Special teams
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| The Bears have a sizeable edge on special teams mainly due to the play of Devin Hester. |
That said, the Colts will have to decide how they handle kickoff off to dangerous Chicago return specialist Devin Hester. They allowed 220 kickoff return yards to New England two weeks ago, and that was a conference championship game record. So will Adam Vinatieri kick it deep -- and chances are the Bears will at least get the ball out to the 30-yard line? Or will he try to kick to the side, and if the ball goes out of bounds Chicago starts at the 40?
So Hester can be a huge factor in this game. One thing to remember, though: Hester has had a little trouble holding on to the football in recent games.
The pick:Indianapolis 27, Chicago 17


The Swiss Genius was at work last night.
Bring it on, Maria!!!
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This shot was a winner I know it.
The $250 million Beckham will receive will be nothing compared to what MLS will get in return for his services.
Beckham will be leaving Spanish giants Real Madrid at the end of the La Liga season in May.
Ian Johnson, No. 41 had two victories Monday night in the Fiesta Bowl. 
Johnson gets a yes from his girlfriend.
